After Presidential Election of Moldova
It has been exactly one week since the people of Moldova went to the polls to elect the President of the Republic of Moldova on 30 October 2020. In the election, no presidential candidate could achieve the absolute majority, leaving the election to the second round.
The candidates who participated in the election but could not participate in the second round were listed as follows: Our Party’s candidate and chairman, pro-Russia Renato Usatîi took the third place with 16.90% of the votes, and the Shor Party’s candidate Violeta Ivanov followed him with 6.49%. In fifth place is Andrei Năstase, chairman and candidate of the pro-European Platform for Dignity and Truth, who received 3.26% of the vote, and Octavian Țîcu, the candidate and leader of the pro-Romanian National Unity Party, who followed him, received 2.01% of the votes.
Among the last two presidential candidates, Tudor Deliu, the candidate and chairman of the Moldovan Liberal Democratic Party, received 1.37% of the vote, while Dorin Chirtoacă, the candidate of the pro-Romanian Unirea Electoral Bloc and leader of the Liberal Party, took the last place with 1.20% of the vote.
A total of 1,348,707 valid votes were cast in the election, in which only 48.54% of the voters registered in the election lists participated. Considering that a total of 1,440,733 votes were cast, of which 1,418,518 were valid in the first round of the presidential elections held in 2016, we can see that the public participation in this election is lower than the previous presidential election. Despite the low participation in the first round, I think the participation in the second round will be higher than the first round. I think even more votes could be cast in the second round of this election than in the second round of the 2016 election.
Currently serving as president, Igor Dodon received 680,550 votes in the first round of the 2016 election, and he received only 439,866 votes in this election. It is a fact that he has been losing his support from the public gradually since 2016, but I did not think that the loss was at such a great level. However, since the pro-Russian candidate will be the only pro-Russian candidate in the second round, there is still a chance to win the election by taking the votes of the pro-Russian people, but this is not as easy as in the 2016 election.
I don’t think Igor Dodon can get the support of Renato Usatii, who is pro-Russia like him, for the second round. Considering that Usatîi negotiated with Maia Sandu to overthrow Dodon in the second round, Dodon will also have to put in extra effort to get the pro-Russian votes of voters of Usatîi. Considering that Dodon could not agree on common ground with any candidate other than the Şor Party candidate Violeta Ivanov, even the support of Violeta Ivanov may not save Dodon in the second round.
Dodon, which reached the highest percentage of votes with 84.35% of the votes in Gagauzia, gained only 3.65% of the votes of diaspora. The fact that he received 74.25% of the votes from Transnistria seems to be a great success on paper, but the total number of votes he won from there is 10.595 shows us that the votes from Transnistria are not very important.
It should also be noted that Dodon was not the presidential candidate who won the most votes in Moldova’s three largest cities, Chisinau, Balti and Orhei. Dodon, the second most voted presidential candidate behind Maia Sandu in Chisinau, was also the second most voted presidential candidate in Balti after Renato Usatîi. In Orhei, He ranked third, behind Violeta Ivanov and Maia Sandu.
It is a great success that Maia Sandu won the first round of the election with 36.16% of the votes, even if the votes of pro-European Moldovans were divided. I can say that this pro-European candidate who is committed to stopping corruption and lawlessness and creating a transparent state is now a candidate closer to the presidency in the second round.
Maia Sandu, who received 549,152 votes in the first round of the presidential election in 2016, won 47,769 votes more than Igor Dodon, despite receiving only 487,635 votes in this election. Although the fact that the supporters of Igor Dodon did not show much interest in the election also had an effect on this difference, we see that Maia Sandu’s voters’ interest in the election decreased compared to 2016.
Sandu, who came first from the polls in Chisinau, outscored Igor Dodon in the votes of diaspora. Sandu, who came first from the polls in Chisinau, scored Igor Dodon in the votes from abroad. Sandu, who won 70.12% of the votes abroad, gained 99,166 votes more than Dodon, which won 3.65% of the vote. If this determination of the Moldovan people living abroad continues in the second round, Maia Sandu will start a hundred thousand votes against Dodon, even thanks to the Moldovians living abroad.
The part where Maia Sandu leads against Dodon is more fortunate than Sandu Dodon not only in the votes from abroad but also in the second round election alliances. We can say that almost all of the votes that went to Andrei Nastăse, with whom he was allied in the parliamentary election in 2019, will come to him in the second round of this election. In addition, Octavian Țîcu, who was a major Dodon opponent, also supported Sandu in the second round, which is a huge advantage for Maia Sandu in the pro-Romanian part of the Moldovan community. Voters from the Moldovan Liberal Democratic Party and the Unirea Electoral Block are also close to Maia Sandu. In fact, it is normal for these candidates to support Maia Sandu, but the most important and most surprising event here is Renato Usatîi, who will support Maia Sandu even though he is not pro-European like Maia Sandu. Usatîi, who is pro-Russia, prefers Sandu, who is almost in opposition to him, over Dodon, who is of the same opinion with him, and Usatîi’s voters may be taken to the polls for Sandu in the second round. Nevertheless, I think that even if a significant part of these Usatîi voters will vote for Dodon by making ideological choices, a significant majority of the voters who support Usatîi in most parts of Moldova, especially Balti, will follow Usatii’s call and vote for Sandu^.
One of Maia Sandu’s election promises was the dissolution of parliament and early elections. If these promises come true, Renato Usatii may be setting up a plan to overthrow the Party of Socialists of the Republic of Moldova, which has lost its presidential election, to make the Our Party the strongest pro-Russian party, which he chaired. Indeed, if Sandu wins this election and dissolves the parliament and decides on early elections, I guess that the Socialists Party of the Republic of Moldova will lose great power. At worst, if the lawlessness of Igor Dodon is documented, there is a possibility that Dodon will flee abroad, just like Vlad Plahotniuc, the leader of the Democratic Party of Moldova, who fled Moldova after losing the parliamentary election in 2019.
To sum up, in the second round of the presidential election in Moldova, which will take place on November 15, 2020, Igor Dodon and Maia Sandu will compete to become the sixth president of the Republic of Moldova. Although Sandu has more advantage in the second round, it is still not certain who will win the election. Just like the last sentence of the article I wrote before the first round, I wish everything to be like. I hope that this election ends in the best possible way for Moldova and that political instability and corruption will be replaced by more law-abiding and transparent administration.
