Maia Sandu, New President in Moldova

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In the Presidential Election of the Republic of Moldova held on 15 November 2020, the leader of the Action and Solidarity Party, who won 57.72% of the votes, pro-EU Maia Sandu defeated Igor Dodon and was elected President of Moldova. With this result, Sandu, the first female president of the Republic of Moldova, overthrew pro-Russian Igor Dodon, the leader of the Socialists Party of the Republic of Moldova (PSRM) and the current President of Moldova, taking the rematch of the 2016 election.

In the 2016 presidential elections, Igor Dodon, the candidate of the Party of Socialists of the Republic of Moldova (PSRM), won 52.11% of the votes in the second round, defeating Maia Sandu and was elected president.

Maia Sandu, who previously served as minister of economy and prime minister, is one of the most popular politicians of the Moldovan people who support the European Union. This is evidenced by the fact that he was the only pro-European candidate remaining in the second round of the 2016 presidential elections, and that the ACUM Electoral Block, led by Maia Sandu, received the most votes in the parliamentary elections in 2019.

In the first round of the election, Sandu won 70.12% of the votes abroad, 99,166 votes more than Dodon, which won 3.65% of the vote. In the second round, Sandu gained 92.94% of the votes from abroad and received 243,605 votes from Moldovan citizens living abroad. Her rival, Dodon, won only 18,498 votes from abroad and started the election 225,107 votes behind his rival. Even though Sandu reached the highest rate of votes after receiving 80.37% of the votes in the Ialoveni region, after the votes from abroad, she received the highest number of votes from Chisinau. Maia Sandu, who received 206,820 votes and 59.70% of the votes in Chisinau, got only 1267 of Taraclicia and Taraclicia was the region with the lowest voters for Sandu. Sandu, which received only 5.41% of the votes in Gagauzia, had the lowest percentage of votes in this election, in the Gagauzia.

It would not be a lie to say that Maia Sandu, who promised to fight corruption and the unlawful throughout the her presidency and to govern the state in a transparent manner, would find herself under a great burden from the moment she became President of the Republic of Moldova after the official results were announced. Before the 2019 parliamentary election, Maia Sandu and her election partner, Andrei Năstase, had promised that Igor Dodon would never form a coalition with the PSRM. They even signed a public agreement stating that if such a coalition were formed they would resign en masse. But they returned from this promise they gave before the election. This incident diminished the trust in Maia Sandu. Despite this incident, Sandu’s winning in the election is the biggest proof of Moldovan people’s desire for innovation in administration and closeness to Europe. If Maia Sandu does not pursue unlawfulness as she promised during her presidency before the election, Sandu’s presidency may be limited for a single term just like Dodon. That’s why we can say that Maia Sandu found herself on bed of nails.

Igor Dodon, the former pro-Russian president of the Republic of Moldova, who suffered a heavy defeat in this election, did not make a statement after the election was over, like the opposition was afraid. Although there have been claims that Igor Dodon wil not accept the election when he is defeated, Igor Dodon did what a statesman should do and refrained from making statements that would cast a shadow on democracy. In his first statement, Dodon said he would admit defeat if the courts did not see anything inappropriate during the voting process. “If the courts decide that everything is fine, then we’ll stop there completely,” he said. He also said he congratulated Sandu. Meeting with the parliamentarians after the election and thanking them for their devoted work in the election, Dodon also announced that it has decided to return to the PSRM and announced that he will visit Russia as the President of the PSRM and meet with the Dmitry Kozak, who is the Vice President of Staff of Russian Federation.

International Effects of Elections

Romania, the southern neighbor of Moldova, was one of the countries that awaited the election result with curiosity. President of Romania Klaus Iohannis became the first head of state to congratulate Sandu on his election. Iohannis, who congratulated Sandu personally by calling Sandu, did not forget to congratulate Sandu online by posting a post on Twitter. It was also announced that when Sandu assumed the presidency and when Moldova’s EU integration path was discussed, Iohannis would visit Chisinau and support Moldova on this road to the end. After Romanian President Iohannis, Romanian Prime Minister Ludovic Orban also congratulated Sandu. Romania did not have a very productive period with the pro-Russian Igor Dodon.

Moldova’s northeastern neighbor Ukraine followed the elections as much as Romania. After Romanian President Iohannis, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky was the second president to congratulate Sandu. Stating that Sandu wanted to increase the relations between Moldova and Ukraine during his presidency, Zelensky also expressed that he looks forward to strengthening relations on the way to European Union membership. Ukraine, which has a pro-European attitude just like Romania, has a very positive attitude towards the pro-European Union Maia Sandu.

In the following years, even if it seems unlikely that assistance will be received from Ukraine, which has the border with Transnistria, to solve the Transnistria problem, but in my opinion there is a still small possibility.

Russia was one of the first countries to congratulate Maia Sandu after this election. While Russian President Vladimir Putin sent a telegram congratulating Sandu, the part of the telegram that “it is eagerly awaited constructive development of relations” drew attention.

Even if Igor Dodon, backed by the Kremlin, lost the election, Russia has no intention of losing its close relationship with Moldova. Even if Igor Dodon, backed by the Kremlin, lost the election, Russia has no intention of losing its close relationship with Moldova. He will not be pleased with Moldova’s closeness to the European Union, led by Kremlin Sandu, who always tries to keep close relations with Moldova, a former Soviet country. Pro-European Maia Sandu will put a strong test here. The interruption of relations with Russia or a possible rapprochement with the European Union and the USA may create irreversible problems for Moldova. In the face of such an event, Russia can use the Transnistria Socialist Republic, which is a de facto state within Moldova, supported by Russia, during a possible EU-Moldovan rapprochement and can completely separate Transnistria from Moldova. If we consider the expulsion of Armenia, which was recently in a European and American movement, from Karabakh, where it occupied, by Azerbaijan under Russian supervision, Moldova may face a possible Transnistrian problem.

In addition to Transnistria, the Autonomous Region of the Gagauzia should not be forgotten. The majority of Gagauzia, a pro-Russian region, consists of Turks, who are the minority in the country. Considering that the pro-European Maia Sandu from Gagauzia got only 5.41% of the vote, we can say that the people of Gagauzia do not agree with Moldova on the presidency. Russia can use the Gagauzia just like Transnistria, if things don’t go away with Moldova, headed by Maia Sandu.

When the president was Igor Dodon, Moldova-Turkey relations was experiencing the best period in the history. Especially in recent years had been a Republic of Turkey lent their support to the Gagauzia. But in Maia Sandu’s period, it is difficult to say that it will continue like this. Especially in recent years the Republic of Turkey has never withhold its support for the Gagauzia. Turkey’s rapprochement with Gagauzia, I do not think it would be positive in the coming period for Maia Sandu. That’s why I don’t think she would view this rapprochement as favorably as Igor Dodon. I think the proximity between of the Gagauz Turks and the Republic of Turkey, will be blocked by Maia Sandu. In addition, even after one week out of the election, the Republic of Turkey didn’t congratulate Maia Sandu. This situation shows us the relations between Turkey and Moldova will not be close as past.

Support of the Republic of Turkey on Gagauzia, if subjected to sanctions by Maia Sandu, Sandu can lost all control in Gagauzia, where she is not loved. If she does not interfere the activities of the Republic of Turkey in Gagauzia, she can see negative reacts from the European Union and her supporters. Sandu is likely to face a problem here.

We can say that the European Union will be able to act more effectively in Moldova with Maia Sandu winning. The European Union, which I think will offer more opportunities for the development of Moldova, is likely to face Russia in this small country. I think that the EU, which wants Moldova’s border with Ukraine to be taken under control as soon as possible, will have problems in that region because of the pro-Russian Transnistria. However, it is obvious that whatever happens, the communication between the EU and Maia Sandu Moldova will be much better than the relationship between Igor Dodon Moldova and the EU.

As I conclude my article, I hope that this election has ended in the best possible way for Moldova, and I wish that the time of political instability and corruption will end soon in this small but beautiful country.